Geopolitical conflicts, extreme weather, political unrest and crime are making travel increasingly complex for tourism companies and travellers. In an interview, Mirko Jacubowski from A3M explains how security risks in the travel sector can be assessed and communicated in a nuanced way without hastily stigmatising individual regions. A3M is a service provider specialising in travel safety and crisis management and develops, among other things, early warning, information and communication systems.
Interview by Alien Spiller
Mr Jacubowski, have geopolitical conflicts, natural disasters and other security risks made travelling more complex in recent years? Which developments are you currently observing?
Yes, travelling has become significantly more complex. This is not so much because individual risks are entirely new, but primarily because crises occur more frequently and simultaneously, develop more rapidly and are more closely interlinked. Geopolitical conflicts can, at short notice, affect flight routes, border crossings or the security situation in neighbouring countries. Extreme weather events can lead to evacuations, transport disruptions and restrictions on tourism infrastructure. Other factors include political unrest, strikes, cyber-attacks and health risks.
We are currently observing that the effects of a crisis can no longer be confined to the area directly affected. An escalation can, for example, affect international air travel, energy prices or supply chains. It is therefore becoming increasingly important for travellers and businesses to keep an eye not only on the situation at their destination, but also on possible knock-on effects and the journey as a whole.
What role does crime, including organised crime, play in travel safety and security?
Crime plays an important role in travel safety, although a distinction must be made between everyday crime and organised crime. For travellers, the risks of theft, robbery, fraud and kidnapping are of immediate relevance. Organised crime often has a more indirect impact, for example through drug trafficking, protection rackets, human trafficking or violent clashes between criminal rival groups.
The situation becomes especially problematic when state structures are weak, corruption is widespread or criminal networks control individual regions. In such cases, risk situations can change at very short notice. It is therefore crucial to assess each situation carefully: high crime rates do not automatically imply an equally high risk for travellers. Key factors include the specific location, the type of trip, personal behaviour and whether tourist areas, transport routes or certain times of day are particularly affected.
A3M supports companies in the tourism sector in assessing security risks. How do you approach this? What criteria and data sources form the basis of your risk assessments?
Our risk assessments are based on a structured, multi-stage process. First, our Travel Security Analysts collect and review information from a wide range of sources. These include reports from public authorities and international organisations, local and international media, weather and earthquake monitoring services, transport information, as well as verified reports from social media and local sources.
However, it is not only the amount of information that matters, but also how it is contextualised. Among other factors, we assess the reliability of the source, the geographical scope, the expected duration and dynamics of an event, and its specific impact on travellers. For example, we distinguish between general political tensions and an immediate threat to tourist areas or transport routes.
In addition, we consider the existing infrastructure, the capacity of local authorities and emergency services, as well as possible alternative routes and evacuation options. The aim is to combine many individual data points to provide a clear and actionable assessment of the situation.
Your Risk Map shows that only a few countries are now classified in the lowest risk category. How can risks be communicated without prematurely stigmatising countries or regions and unnecessarily disadvantaging tourism-dependent communities?
Responsible risk communication needs to be precise, balanced and proportionate. Generalised statements about entire countries are often unhelpful, as security situations can vary considerably from one region to another. An incident in a border region, for example, does not necessarily affect tourist centres located far away.
This is precisely where the A3M Risk Map comes in. It provides an overview of the security situation in each country and, where necessary, differentiates between individual regions. This gives travellers a quick initial overview and helps them assess whether a risk affects the entire destination or only clearly defined areas.
In addition, we try to define risks as precisely as possible in geographical and temporal terms and to clearly distinguish between confirmed facts, likely developments and scenarios that remain uncertain. It is equally important not only to identify the risk, but also to provide concrete recommendations: Which areas should be avoided? Which transport routes are affected? What precautions should be taken?
Risk communication should enable people to make informed decisions rather than create unnecessary fear. This also means regularly updating assessments and lifting restrictions once the situation improves.
How will security management in tourism change in the coming years?
Security management will become more data-driven, automated and personalised. Digital platforms will enable companies to identify relevant developments earlier and provide their travellers with more targeted information. Artificial intelligence can help analyse large volumes of information, identify patterns and prioritise alerts. However, the final assessment of complex security situations will continue to require human experience and contextual knowledge.
To strengthen their resilience, companies should establish clear crisis management processes, define responsibilities and conduct regular exercises. Up-to-date contact details, reliable traveller location information and alternative communication channels are also important in case mobile networks or other systems fail.
Resilience does not mean being able to eliminate every risk. What matters is being prepared for unexpected events, making decisions quickly and being flexible enough to adapt business operations as needed.
What challenges arise when assessing travel risks given the wide range of information available today?
The vast amount of information available is both a blessing and a curse. Travellers now receive news almost in real time. At the same time, unverified reports, outdated images and deliberately manipulated content can spread very quickly. Social media content often lacks context: a dramatic video may be authentic but may show an event that took place in a different region or at an earlier time.
AI applications can also summarise information in an accessible way, but they are only as reliable as the underlying data. They may reproduce outdated or incorrect information and present uncertainties as more certain than they actually are. AI is also still prone to hallucinations, which is problematic in an area as sensitive as security, where accurate information is crucial. This means that AI-generated information must always be verified by an analyst.
The key challenge, therefore, is to verify information, cross-check sources and distinguish between an event that attracts widespread public attention and one that poses a genuine travel risk. Professional assessment provides guidance and helps prevent overreactions as well as the dangerous downplaying of risks.
What advice would you give travellers to help them make well-informed and responsible decisions?
Travellers should not rely solely on a single source, but compare information from public authorities, tour operators and professional security services. It is also important to pay close attention to the location affected and the date of a report. A tense situation in one part of a country does not necessarily mean that any travel there is irresponsible.
Before departure, travellers should provide their contact details, check their insurance conditions and familiarise themselves with basic emergency procedures. This includes alternative travel routes, important telephone numbers and knowing how to contact family members or their employer in an emergency.
Ultimately, the travel decision is always an individual one. Personal experience, health, the type of trip and risk tolerance all play a role. Being well prepared does not mean travelling in fear, but rather assessing potential risks realistically and remaining capable of taking action in an emergency.
Mirko Jacubowski is Chief Operating Officer at A3M Global Monitoring GmbH, where he is responsible for product development and sales of Travel Risk Management solutions to the tourism industry. He has many years of experience in the tourism sector, including as Managing Director of Gesellschaft für Reisevertriebssysteme (GfR). At Thomas Cook, he held various management positions in sales and service and was also responsible for the travel group’s crisis management in the DACH region.