ITB 2026: Tourism Between Geopolitical Crises, Digitalisation and Responsibility

Iran Conflict Overshadows the Start of the Trade Fair

The effects of the escalating conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran were already visible upon arrival. Not only did numerous travellers become stranded during stopovers in the Middle East, but many exhibitors were also unable to attend. Several stands remained empty throughout the entire fair, and the centrally located Middle East Hall was only sparsely visited.

Security considerations are likely to move further into the foreground when it comes to travel decisions in the future. Package tour operators could in principle benefit from this development – yet whether travellers’ confidence can be restored, or whether a renaissance of short- and medium-haul travel will emerge instead, remains to be seen.

Tourism in a World of Permanent Crises

New geopolitical tensions were also a central topic at the ITB Congress. In his keynote address, former German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer advised the industry to prepare for crises as a permanent condition and to develop resilience, stating that “geopolitics is not in favour of international tourism.” His recommendation was for tourism stakeholders to look more closely into political developments and integrate them into their day-to-day business strategies. Fischer also noted, drawing on his own experience, that tourism does not create peace – but peace is essential for the sector to develop positively.

Conversations with industry representatives also made clear that tourism has always had to deal with crises and disasters. A common adaptation strategy has been to shift the focus to alternative destinations and travel products. However, this strategy may reach its limits when crises erupt simultaneously in many parts of the world. The causes are not limited to armed conflicts, but also include wildfires, water shortages because of climate change, or general insecurity, such as the current surge in gang violence in Mexico. Even for established long-haul destinations such as the United States, questions are increasingly being raised about how attractive or politically acceptable travel there currently is. It is time to seriously develop truly resilient strategies. This does not mean the end of tourism – Tourism Watch has already documented many resilience strategies developed by tourism actors. However, it does require a more profound shift in thinking than the industry has shown so far.

An Industry Still on a Growth Path

Despite geopolitical tensions, the industry itself looks back on a strong year. In 2025, around 1.5 billion international arrivals were recorded worldwide, meaning that pre-pandemic levels were exceeded for the first time. By 2030, the number is expected to reach two billion international arrivals. Travel spending also increased by around 25 percent compared to 2024. Industry representatives therefore expressed cautious optimism about business prospects for 2026.

“Balancing Tourism” – Big Words, Few Innovations

To mark its 60th anniversary, ITB placed this year’s event under the motto “Balancing Tourism.” The central question was not whether tourism would continue to grow, but how this growth should be shaped – who benefits from it and whether it can be achieved in a balanced, inclusive and resilient way.

For Tourism Watch, issues such as the fair distribution of tourism value creation, respect for human rights, the participation of local communities, and climate and resource justice are central concerns. At this year’s ITB Congress, these topics were indeed visible in the programme. Yet innovative impulses remained largely absent. Whether the words will be followed by concrete action remains to be seen.

At the same time, several initiatives from our network were present and set their own accents: the Studienkreis für Tourismus und Entwicklung with the presentation of the TO DO Award and TO DO Award Human Rights, Futouris with contributions on biodiversity, and the Roundtable Human Rights in Tourism, which hosted a discussion on the Tourism Impact Assessment South Africa 2025 on the Blue Stage – a fitting project milestone also for Tourism Watch, which participated in the assessment on the ground.

Digitalisation Dominates the Exhibition Halls

Beyond these debates, the trade fair was once again strongly dominated by the topic of digitalisation. Critical discussions about the social and ecological impacts of digital transformation remain the exception.

For this reason, it was particularly important for us, together with ECPAT Germany, to highlight new risks arising from digitalisation on the Lighthouse Stage in the Responsible Tourism area. In a panel on protecting children from sexual exploitation in travel and tourism, we discussed emerging patterns of abuse in digital spaces and presented our Tourism Watch study “Digital Trends in Tourism – Between Algorithms and Exploitation.”

Sustainability Remains Underrepresented

Overall, the tourism industry has made some progress in recent years regarding corporate responsibility. At ITB, however, the topic remains structurally underrepresented. Responsible Tourism continues to appear only as a subsection in the basement of Hall 4.1. Sustainability also had a significantly stronger presence at earlier editions of the ITB Congress.

At the same time, political priorities are shifting towards using tourism development as a driver of economic growth. Support for sustainability issues is losing momentum, while geopolitical crises are increasingly directing the attention of many stakeholders towards security concerns.

For Tourism Watch, this is a clear signal to continue our efforts and to actively contribute to the debate on socially just and sustainable tourism development.