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Huge Challenges for the Tourism Sector

By Christina Kamp

Tourism has not been playing a major role in climate reports and negotiations. At the international symposium "Travel & Tourism in the Age of Climate Change" in July 2009 in Eastbourne (UK), the tourism-climate change nexus took centre stage. The British University of Brighton brought together experts from both fields, saving part of the conference-related emissions by inviting Michael Hall, University of Christchurch, New Zealand, for a virtual presentation.

"If tourism was a country, it would rank 5th in terms of global emissions", says Michael Hall, giving a rough idea of the dimensions of the global tourism challenge, and especially the aviation sector. Regulation, he says, will become a major area of debate in the future. Efficiency as part of a "business as usual" approach is not enough. The number of consumers is increasing, reducing natural capital further and further. Michael Hall therefore points out the need for more research on the nature of consumption, sufficiency and reorientation.

China: Discouraging trends

Wolfgang Arlt, China Outbound Tourism Research Institute (COTRI) in Heide, Germany, has analysed the travel motivation of Chinese tourists, with discouraging results. For the Chinese, international travel serves to gain prestige and cultural capital through conspicuous consumption. They hardly distinguish between leisure and business tourism. Both are seen as "investments". Since 2009, China has been Asia's biggest source market (excluding Hong Kong and Macao). Due to serious ecological problems and scandals, "green" ideas are slowly gaining ground in China. Tourism, however, is not seen as a source of pollution. The Chinese tourism industry is not interested in climate change and is not taking any special measures. There is no pressure from consumers, says Wolfgang Arlt. Chinese culture is based on a strong distinction between "ingroup" and "outgroup", which means that the Chinese hardly care about people in other countries, let alone the atmosphere. It is therefore unlikely that Chinese tourists will respond to either moral or financial pressure to review their travel behaviour in terms of their contribution to climate change.

Carbon neutral destinations?

It is also unlikely that tourism destinations will be able to offer "carbon neutral" tourism in the foreseeable future. According to Stefan Gössling, University of Lund, Sweden, even "carbon neutral destinations" continue to emit CO2, but seek to compensate their emissions. Flights to and from the destination are usually not included. While carbon neutral destinations appear to be a feasible concept, it remains unclear how carbon neutrality can be maintained in the longer term. "What would happen if everyone offsets? It wouldn't work", says Stefan Gössling, pointing out the systemic problem involved. Reducing the first ten percent of energy consumption will save money, as a lot is still being wasted. Another ten percent can be saved through restructuring, he says. Then, however, costs for emission reductions will increase. Emissions distribution will therefore be of great relevance in the future.

Who will pay for tourism growth?

Considering the total cumulative emission budgets until 2100, it is physically impossible to let tourism grow and get the emission rights from other sectors, said Paul Peeters, NHTV Breda University of Applied Sciences, Netherlands. Purchasing allowances from carbon markets means that others have to pay for tourism emissions. "It is a complicated way of saying, we are not doing much, others have to do it", says Paul Peeters. Assuming 100 percent emissions in 2005 as a basis, ongoing fleet renewal and technology development can lead to 30 percent reduction (by 2050). Achieving 70 percent less emissions in 2050 would require mode shifts - a complete restructuring of transport, towards other modes of transport, such as rail, while significantly reducing cars. Aviation, however, remains a key area. "As far as emission reductions and growth in tourism are concerned, UNWTO is not anywhere near a realistic scenario", says Paul Peeters.

There are huge challenges ahead for tourism to achieve the aspirational goals and emission reductions consistent with the climate policy targets of the international community. Furthermore, this might not even be enough. Even the target of not allowing global warming beyond two degrees is, according to the British author Mark Lynas, "a recipe for disaster", as it would neither save the coral reefs, nor the glaciers, nor the Amazon rainforest.

(712 words, 63 lines, September 2009)